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NOAA News
El Nino looms large over U.S. Winter Outlook
El Nino looms large over U.S. Winter Outlook
Expected impacts include warmer North, wetter South and East
October 15, 2026
A car drives through a snowstorm in Broomfield, Colorado, in 2024. (Image credit: Bob Hyatt/NOAA)
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NOAA’s U.S. Winter Outlook, released today, shows how El Nino will likely influence the upcoming winter months (December 2026 to February 2027), with warmer-than-average temperatures expected across the northern U.S.; wetter-than-average conditions likely across the southern U.S., from California to Florida, and along the Eastern Seaboard; and drought improving for the majority of the country, including areas in the East, Southern Great Plains and Southwest.“As we know from decades of observations, a very strong El Nino will likely bring a southward and eastward shift to the jet stream for the contiguous U.S., which tilts the odds toward stormier weather across the South,” said Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “While higher chances of rain and snow may bring relief to drought-afflicted areas, too much precipitation on dry soil can fuel destructive flash floods and mudslides. Now is the time for communities and individuals to plan ahead for the upcoming winter.”
The 2026-2027 U.S. Winter Outlook map for temperature shows the greatest chances for warmer-than-average conditions in the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Midwest, Mississippi Valley, much of the East and Alaska. (Image credit: NOAA)Download Image
Temperature OutlookWarmer-than-average temperatures are favored for northern California, the Pacific Northwest, Midwest, Mississippi Valley, much of the East, Alaska and for Puerto Rico / U.S. Virgin Islands.Near-normal temperatures are most likely for parts of the Southeast including Florida.Hawaii and much of the Southwest have equal chances of below-average, near-average or above-average seasonal mean temperatures.
The 2026-2027 U.S. Winter Outlook map for precipitation shows wetter-than-average conditions are most likely across the Southwest, South and East Coast. Drier-than-average conditions are forecast for parts of the northern Rockies and Great Lakes, and central Alaska. (Image credit: NOAA)Download Image
Precipitation OutlookWetter-than-average conditions are most likely across the southern tier, from the Southwest to the Southeast, and along the East Coast.Elevated odds for drier-than-average conditions for Hawaii, much of Alaska, the northern Mountain West, some areas in the Great Lakes and the western Pacific Islands.Areas in the Intermountain West, northern Plains, Ohio Valley and Puerto Rico / U.S. Virgin Islands have equal chances of below-average, near-average or above-average seasonal total precipitation amounts.
The U.S. Drought Outlook map for October 15, 2026, through January 2027, predicts drought conditions to improve or end by the end of January for the Southwest, Southern Great Plains, Southeast and East Coast. Drought conditions are favored to develop or worsen across parts of the northern Rockies. (Image credit: NOAA)Download Image
Drought OutlookDrought conditions are forecast to improve or end in the Southwest, Southern Great Plains, Southeast and parts of the East Coast.Drought conditions are favored to develop or worsen across parts of the northern Rockies, along with northeastern Oregon and eastern Washington.Winter forecasting tools: What’s new this yearNOAA has also implemented upgrades to many of its winter weather products for the 2026-27 winter season:The National Weather Service’s Probabilistic Precipitation Portal is now operational. This platform enables users to view the low-end, expected, and high-end amounts of snow, ice and rain, as well as the probabilities of precipitation exceeding specific thresholds. Data are accessible through an interactive map, tables and graphics to assist local partners and emergency managers with decision support. Local graphics and probabilistic snow resources can be found online. The National Weather Service will implement the use of “Particularly Dangerous Situation” wording in select Blizzard Warnings and Ice Storm Warnings this season. This language will help forecasters alert partners and the public about high-confidence blizzards or ice storms of historic severity. These rare events typically pose exceptional threats by posing imminent danger to life and unprecedented disruptions to emergency services.About NOAA's seasonal outlooksNOAA’s seasonal outlooks provide the likelihood that temperatures and total precipitation amounts will be above-, near- or below-average, and how drought conditions are anticipated to change in the months ahead. The outlook does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations as snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance. NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center updates its three-month outlook monthly. The next update will be available on November 19. Stay current on winter weather risks in your area with the latest official watches and warnings at weather.gov. Visit weather.gov/safety for important winter preparedness information.
Media contactNOAA National Weather Service Public Affairs Team at: nws.pa@noaa.gov
Weather
winter
forecasts
seasonal outlooks
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NOAA News
Ocean Facts: What are Kelvin waves?
Ocean Facts: What are Kelvin waves?
Kelvin waves are difficult to see with the naked eye as they are large in scale, slow moving, and don't break onshore like typical ocean waves. In this graphic, satellite radar altimetry measurements reveal the sea surface signature of Kelvin waves where the ocean surface is higher or lower than its long-term average. The yellow color represents elevated sea surface heights at ranges of 0 to 0.25 meters (0 to 10 inches). The red/orange color represents elevated sea surface heights at ranges of 0.25 to at least 1 meter (10 inches to at least 40 inches). (Image credit: NOAA Satellites)
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October 14, 2026
Ocean & Coasts
ocean facts
El Nino, La Nina, ENSO
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Aerial images of damage from #Isaias now available online
Aerial images of damage from #Isaias now available online
An aerial view of Pensacola, Florida, collected by NOAA aircraft on October 11, 2026, after Hurricane Isaias passed through. (Image credit: NOAA NGS)
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October 13, 2026
Ocean & Coasts
Marine & Aviation
aerial imagery
hurricanes
National Geodetic Survey
NOAA planes
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Trump Administration releases America First Seafood Strategy
Trump Administration releases America First Seafood Strategy
Key actions will strengthen U.S. fisheries, processing capacity, and coastal economies
October 23, 2026
Fishing vessel in Point Judith, Rhode Island. (Image credit: NOAA Fisheries)
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Today, President Trump announced the America First Seafood Strategy, a key directive under the president’s Executive Order Restoring American Seafood Competitiveness. NOAA plays a key role in the Strategy, which details a coordinated federal plan to expand domestic seafood production, modernize infrastructure, improve market access for American harvesters and processors, and ensure fair competition in U.S. and international markets.“The species managed in U.S. waters are American icons - from Maine lobster to Gulf shrimp, from Alaskan salmon to Florida stone crab, American seafood is a rich part of U.S. history and our vibrant coastal economy,” said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. “The America First Seafood Strategy ensures that the future of seafood in the United States will be built by American fishermen, American workers, and American industry—not by foreign imports.”NOAA manages some of the world’s most productive and scientifically assessed fishery resources. American commercial fishermen operate under rigorous conservation and management standards. The Strategy builds on that foundation by aligning federal policy, science, and existing authorities to increase sustainable harvest opportunities, reduce unnecessary regulatory costs, rebuild domestic processing and shoreside capacity, and give American seafood a stronger competitive position at home and abroad.Key elements of the Strategy include:Expanding Domestic Production and Market OpportunitiesNOAA is working with the Regional Fishery Management Councils offsite link and industry to ensure catch limits reflect the best available science, restore access to productive fishing grounds where supported by data, and reduce compliance costs that do not advance conservation objectives. A voluntary “U.S.-Caught Seafood” designation, developed in coordination with the Food and Drug Administration and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), will give consumers a clear way to identify seafood harvested by American fishermen on U.S.-flagged vessels under U.S. management. Federal agencies will also expand opportunities for American seafood in government procurement and launch a nationwide “Eat American Seafood” campaign highlighting jobs, coastal economies, food security, and nutrition benefits.Rebuilding Infrastructure, Processing Capacity, and the Fishing FleetFederal agencies will streamline permitting and reduce barriers to private investment in cold storage, wet storage, working waterfronts, docks, shipyards, and processing facilities. Existing USDA, Small Business Administration, and NOAA financing tools will be leveraged to support modernization of processing plants, vessel replacement, and equipment upgrades. NOAA will review the Fisheries Finance Program and Capital Construction Fund to remove obstacles that discourage fishermen from reinvesting in safer, more efficient, American-built vessels. Success will be measured by increases in domestic production and processing, private capital deployed, American jobs supported, and reduced reliance on foreign supply chains.Strengthening Fair Trade, Import Compliance, and Enforcement Against Illegal FishingNOAA will continue to implement and improve the Seafood Import Monitoring Program and related authorities, using advanced tools to target high-risk imports. The Strategy reinforces interagency efforts to combat seafood fraud, mislabeling, and illegal, unregulated, and unreported fishing, while supporting reciprocal market access for U.S. exports through coordination with the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative and other agencies.Regulatory Reform and Industry PartnershipBuilding on input already received under the Seafood Competitiveness Executive Order, NOAA is advancing targeted regulatory reforms in partnership with the Regional Fishery Management Councils. The agency will also work with permitting partners to establish clearer standards and guidance for marine aquaculture in federal waters, providing greater predictability for responsible expansion of domestic aquaculture that complements wild-capture fisheries.Supporting Public Health Through SeafoodFederal health and nutrition agencies will align guidance and education with current science on the benefits of seafood consumption. NOAA will contribute accurate fisheries and aquaculture information to coordinated public messaging.NOAA’s role centers on providing the scientific foundation, fisheries management expertise, and verification support necessary to implement these priorities while maintaining sustainable management of U.S. marine resources. The Strategy relies on existing statutory authorities and programs rather than new spending initiatives. It focuses federal effort on removing barriers, improving coordination, and delivering measurable results for American fishermen, processors, and coastal communities.By prioritizing domestic production, infrastructure, fair competition, and science-based management, the America First Seafood Strategy positions the United States to strengthen its seafood industrial base, support coastal prosperity, and enhance national food security.
Media contactJohn Chu, NOAA Fisheries Public Affairs team, at: nmfs.pa@noaa.gov
Fisheries
commercial fishing
seafood
Seafood Month
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NOAA News
Saildrone research fleet to circle Antarctica for 5 years
Saildrone research fleet to circle Antarctica for 5 years
NOAA and partners to test limits of technology and science
A Saildrone uncrewed surface vehicle is towed out of the Australian port of Hobart, Tasmania, before being released into the Southern Ocean to collect vital oceanographic data. (Image credit: Courtesy of CSIRO/APP)
October 13, 2026
The Southern Ocean is one of the roughest and most dangerous bodies of water on Earth. It’s also key to understanding the global climate system. The vast distances and harsh conditions of the Southern Ocean have discouraged traditional ship-borne investigations that would help researchers resolve significant questions about just how much carbon dioxide (CO2) the ocean absorbs, especially in winter. That’s why scientists are now turning to uncrewed systems.On September 19, 2026, the first of four sturdy, instrumented Saildrone Explorer uncrewed surface vehicles (USVs) departed from Hobart, Tasmania, marking the start of an ambitious, five-year effort offsite link to tackle this challenge. Led by researchers at NOAA, Columbia University, Australia’s Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO offsite link), the Constraining Ocean Carbon with Optimized Observing (COCO2 offsite link) project will deploy three more Saildrones every three months during 2027. The small fleet will repeatedly circumnavigate Antarctica, collecting data about the ocean around them as they navigate along courses identified by AI-driven ocean-air models to intersect with high-value target areas.The ocean stores about a third of CO2 absorbed from the atmosphere each year, and scientists estimate the Southern Ocean accounts for 40% of the total, said Adrienne Sutton, an oceanographer at NOAA’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory and a co-lead of the project.“The global ocean is Earth’s largest carbon sink, and the Southern Ocean plays an outsized role,” Sutton said. “With COCO2 we are filling a critical knowledge gap by adding observations during winter — something we have not been able to do with traditional oceanographic tools.”
An example of the kind of route (labeled in red) Saildrones will navigate as they sail around Antarctica during the 2026 COCO2 five-year mission. (Image credit: Saildrone, Inc.)
Revolutionizing ocean science Saildrones are remotely controlled mobile research platforms propelled by the wind, with solar-powered onboard systems that enable them to operate for long periods in distant waters while transmitting data in near-real time.Instruments fitted to each Saildrone will make continuous, direct measurements of CO2 being exchanged between the air and ocean — along with wind speed and direction, barometric pressure, solar radiation, relative humidity, air temperature, sea surface temperature, salinity, chlorophyll and dissolved oxygen. As each Saildrone completes a roughly 12,000-mile circumnavigation of Antarctica, it will return to port for repairs and refurbishment before being redeployed for another voyage around the South Pole. The data collected will help scientists develop more confident estimates of CO2 absorption, while gaining insights to one of Earth’s most inhospitable environments. Data from the drones are delivered to PMEL where automated processes route it to research users and the World Meteorological Organization's Global Telecommunication System (GTS) for use with global weather models.
The four Saildrones that will be used on the Southern Ocean mission are equipped with numerous hardy sensors (labeled above) that continuously collect data about the atmosphere and ocean, such as air temperature, sea temperature and salt concentration, and wind speed. (Image credit: Saildrone, Inc.)
An outsized influence over the global climate What sets the Southern Ocean apart is that it’s confined not by continents, but by a current — the Antarctic Circumpolar Current — an invisible boundary whose constant motion drives a massive exchange of heat and carbon between the atmosphere and ocean depths.For years, scientists assumed that the Southern Ocean steadily absorbed large volumes of CO2, although they knew shifts in winds and circulation around Antarctica could alter CO2 uptake. Results from a 2019 PMEL Saildrone mission that completed the first USV circumnavigation of Antarctica confirmed that under winter conditions, deep, CO2-enriched water churned to the surface could emit CO2 instead of absorbing it. That mission also demonstrated that a Saildrone could survive and collect high-quality scientific data in some of the harshest conditions on Earth.The COCO2 team, joined by scientists from the University of Washington and South Africa’s Council for Scientific and Industrial Research and funded by Schmidt Sciences, is the first to deploy multiple USVs for an extended campaign in the Southern Ocean, said CSIRO scientist Elizabeth Shadwick. “Saildrones will give us unprecedented coverage of regions that we can’t get to with research vessels or commercial ships in winter,” Shadwick said. That’s when the Southern Ocean becomes a realm of monochrome isolation and staggering violence, as Earth’s rotation spawns hurricane-force winds that roar around the southern pole, driving a current so powerful it shapes the very climate of the planet. “Getting the ocean's carbon balance right is urgently important, but the Southern Ocean is one of Earth's harshest environments and notoriously difficult to observe,” Sutton said. “This autonomous AI-directed ocean tech that takes on the risk of sailing in Southern Ocean storms is truly game-changing."
Media contactTheo Stein, NOAA Research Public Affairs, at: theo.stein@noaa.gov
Research
Ocean & Coasts
uncrewed systems
Antarctica
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Commerce Department allocates $15.8M in fishery disaster funding to Fla., Calif., and Makah Tribe
Commerce Department allocates $15.8M in fishery disaster funding to Fla., Calif., and Makah Tribe
October 22, 2026
Fishery resource disaster funding will address multiple disasters and support local coastal economies including the fishery for California sea urchins, like the one pictured. (Image credit: AdobeStock)
Today, NOAA announced the allocation of $15.8 million in fishery resource disaster funding, appropriated by Congress in the American Relief Act, 2025. The funding will address multiple fishery resource disasters that occurred in Florida, California, and for the Makah Tribe in Washington state between 2019 and 2024. “The U.S. seafood industry plays a critical role in our coastal economy,” said NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs, Ph.D. “Our fishermen depend on each catch to sustain their livelihoods, yet fishery disasters can have devastating impacts on the businesses and communities that rely on these resources. NOAA is committed to supporting and uplifting our coastal businesses and communities through such challenges so they can continue to thrive.” Today’s $15.8 million allocation announcement applies to previously declared fishery resource disasters, including:Florida Hurricane Ian 2022The Makah Tribe ocean treaty troll fishery, 2020 and 2021The Makah Tribe Fraser sockeye salmon fisheries, 2023, 2021, 2020, 2019The California red sea urchin fishery, 2023/2024NOAA Fisheries used commercial revenue loss information to allocate funding across the eligible disasters. “Coastal communities depend on these fisheries and fishermen to support their local economies,” said Eugenio Piñeiro Soler, assistant administrator for NOAA Fisheries. “These fishery disaster funding allocations are a tangible way to assist these communities in mitigating impacts and restoring fisheries.” These funds will help improve the long-term economic and environmental sustainability of the impacted fisheries. Funds can be used to assist commercial fishermen, recreational fishermen, for-hire businesses, shore-side infrastructure, subsistence users, and the marine environment. Activities that can be considered for funding include direct assistance, fishery-related infrastructure projects, habitat restoration, state-run vessel and fishing permit buybacks, job retraining and more. Eligible businesses and other tribal entities may be able to access other loan/funding programs through Federal relief programs such as the U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA). SBA’s Economic Injury Disaster Loan (EIDL) program is available to small businesses with financial losses directly related to the declared disaster. EIDLs are available for working capital needs and may be used to pay fixed debts, payroll, accounts payable and other bills not paid due to the disaster. For more information on the SBA Economic Injury Disaster Loan program please visit: sba.gov/disaster.In the next steps, NOAA Fisheries will issue a non-competitive Notice of Funding Opportunity letter to fishery disaster recipients who will have 120 days to submit an application to NOAA Fisheries. Fishing communities and individuals affected by this disaster should work with their state or tribal government as appropriate.For more information see the detailed allocations to states and learn more about fishery disaster assistance.
Media contactRachel Hager, NOAA Fisheries Public Affairs, at: nmfs.pa@noaa.gov
Fisheries
fisheries
Department of Commerce
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NOAA News
Large-scale marine debris: 4 ways to clean up the big stuff
Large-scale marine debris: 4 ways to clean up the big stuff
How do you address oversized pollution in the ocean and Great Lakes?
A freediver from the Papahānaumokuākea Marine Debris Project works to carefully remove a ghost net from the reef at Kamokuokamohoali‘i (Maro Reef) in Hawaii. (Image credit: Andrew Sullivan-Hawkins/Papahānaumokuākea Marine Debris Project (Under permit # PMNM-2024-003))
October 7, 2026
Marine debris is a challenging problem. Across the country, NOAA and partners remove everything from lost fishing gear tangled on the seafloor to sunken vessels, abandoned tire reefs, and other trash that have become hazards to navigation and marine ecosystems in the ocean and Great Lakes.Beginning in 2013, NOAA and its partners began to take on the removal of larger-scale marine debris that is beyond what is considered typical — this includes the removal of abandoned vessels, barges, piers, and other debris that can remain in the environment for decades. Doing so improves vessel navigation, supports the fishing and tourism economy, helps communities recover from disasters, and prioritizes productive and safe shorelines and waterways across the United States. To date, more than 50 million pounds of large-scale marine debris has been taken out of marine environments. But clearing large-scale and bulky debris can present big challenges depending on where it is located and what it is made of. Let’s peek into 4 techniques that NOAA and our partners use to keep our marine environments free of debris:1. Gear recovery from seafloor to sea surface
Divers carefully cut fishing gear free from other gear or natural structures before attaching flotation devices, known as lift bags, to float the debris to the surface during removal operations in the Florida Keys in 2020. Lost and abandoned fishing gear, often called ghost gear, can continue trapping marine life long after it enters the environment. Nets, traps, and lines frequently become tangled on reefs, kelp, rocks, and the seafloor, making them difficult to retrieve. In deeper waters, remotely operated vehicles can help crews locate and recover gear that would otherwise remain out of reach. (Image credit: Sean Davis/National Marine Sanctuary Foundation)
2. Heavy machinery for heavy lifting
A partially sunken bridge is lifted by a crane in Neah Bay, Washington. Formerly a floating bridge, this structure was previously part of the Interstate 90 near Seattle and brought to the Makah Tribal Marina for a construction project. Sunken barges, abandoned vessels, derelict piers, and aging marine infrastructure can be major navigation hazards; can weigh hundreds of tons and degrade significantly in the water; and may contain pollutants, such as fuel, paint, and heavy metals. Removal of this heavy debris often requires cranes, salvage vessels, engineers and months of planning to safely remove from the water. (Image credit: Howard Shack, Toolbox Pictures/National Marine Sanctuary Foundation)
3. A hands-on approach for high-impact debris removal
A free diver (left image) with the Papahānaumokuākea Marine Debris Project removes a large amount of netting from the seafloor in Papahānaumokuākea National Marine Sanctuary in the fall of 2023. Commercial fishers, divers, and community partners often retrieve fishing gear including traps, netting, and line, and other debris by hand in places where larger vessels cannot operate. The diving team’s approach to removal depends on the type of abandoned net that is found. Large nets are often cut into smaller sections. Free divers will sometimes attach a line to the net to rig it to a pulley system and bring it aboard the small boat. A net mass, a clump of many nets tangled together, typically weighs 1,000 pounds and takes four marine debris technicians an hour and a half to remove. A lobster fisher (right image) loads a retrieved trap onto his surfboard to paddle back to the boats waiting offshore of Santa Rosa Island in California’s Channel Islands in September 2025. Lobster fishers and volunteers have used skiffs and surfboards to help recover abandoned traps from remote, rocky shorelines and nearshore waters. (Image credit: Andrew Sullivan-Hawkins/Papahānaumokuākea Marine Debris Project (left); NOAA Marine Debris Program (right)Download Image
4. Aircraft-assisted removal in remote areas
A derelict vessel (left) is hoisted by a Washington State Department of Natural Resources firefighting helicopter over the shoreline of Squaxin Island in Washington’s Puget Sound in June 2025. In remote locations with sensitive coastal habitats, transporting debris to a disposal site poses unique challenges for cleanup crews who must contend with weather, tides, and limited infrastructure. In this example, a crew (right) airlifted vessels out of the area to avoid harm to nearby eelgrass and kelp habitat. (Image credit: Courtesy of Caity Rigg/Washington Department of Natural Resources)
Alaska, July 2025: Large durable bags filled with retrieved marine debris called “super sacks” (left) are secured to a line and lifted off the ground by a helicopter that will transport them to a barge offshore. A helicopter (right) deposits bagged marine debris to a barge offshore in remote shorelines in Alaska. Gulf of Alaska Keeper pioneered this technique in Alaska using helicopters to avoid dangerous transit in high surf. Cleanup crews collect and bag the debris, and then they place the sacks in designated collection points for helicopter pickup. (Image credit: Courtesy of Ocean Plastic Recovery Project (left image); Courtesy of Gulf of Alaska Keeper (right image)))
Dive deeperSince 2006, NOAA’s Marine Debris Program has served as the U.S. government’s lead to reduce and prevent the adverse impacts of marine debris on our ocean and Great Lakes. Learn more about large-scale marine debrisWhat is marine debris?20th anniversary of the NOAA Marine Debris ProgramStay current with NOAA’s Marine Debris Blog.Follow NOAA’s Marine Debris Program on X offsite link, Facebook and Instagram.
Media contactNOAA National Ocean Service Public Affairs team at: oceanservicepress@noaa.gov
Ocean & Coasts
marine debris
Great Lakes
ocean
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NOAA to issue 2026-2027 U.S. Winter Outlook October 15
NOAA to issue 2026-2027 U.S. Winter Outlook October 15
October 8, 2026
A car drives through a snowstorm in Broomfield, Colorado, in 2024. (Image credit: Bob Hyatt/NOAA)
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On Thursday, October 15, NOAA’s National Weather Service will announce the U.S. Winter Outlook for December 2026 through February 2027 during a media teleconference. NOAA experts will discuss seasonal temperature and precipitation predictions, expected change in drought conditions across the country, and the impact a very strong El Nino will have on the season. Following the media briefing, there will be a moderated question-and-answer session. WHATU.S. Winter Outlook media teleconferenceWHENThursday, October 15, 2026, at 11:00 a.m. ET /9:00 a.m. MT /8:00 a.m. PTWHOKen Graham, director, NOAA’s National Weather ServiceJon Gottschalck, meteorologist, NOAA’s National Weather ServiceBrad Pugh, meteorologist, NOAA’s National Weather ServiceRussell Vose, climatologist, NOAA's National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information ServiceHOWFor credentialed media only. Interested reporters are required to register for the media briefing offsite link. (For the best experience, the Adobe Connect app offsite link is recommended). After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information on how to join the webinar.
Media contactNWS Public Affairs, nws.pa@noaa.gov
Weather
Climate
seasonal outlooks
winter
forecasts
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